Tagged: trades revisited

The Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis Trade Revisited

On December 5th, 2007, the Florida Marlins traded
star 3B Miguel Cabrera, and star LHP Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers, in
return they received six minor leaguers, LHP Andrew Miller, RHP Dallas Trahern,
RHP Eulogio de la Cruz, RHP Burke Badenhop, CF Camron Maybin, and C Mike


The Tigers were immediately christened as the WS favorites
heading into 2008.  They were
receiving a top slugger, who was just 25, and had averaged 31 HR, 40 2B, 102 R,
115 RBI, and a .947 OPS over the previous four seasons.  His defense left something to be
desired, but they solved that by moving him to first base.  In 2008, despite a dissapointing season
for the Tigers, Cabrera set career highs in homeruns (37), and RBI’s
(127).  The only dark spot was his
career low .349 OBP, it’s back up to .407 in 2009.  Cabrera is in the midst of another stellar season for


Dontrelle Willis, was seemingly already losing it when he
was traded.  In his five seasons
with the Marlins, he had had a good rookie season, and one ace type year.   His low strikeout rate, coupled with an average walk
rate had never been encouraging, and his ERA was a bit on the high side for an
ace.  He was a workhorse, but he
had been lucky on his BABIP’s. 
Still, I don’t think anyone could have predicted how great a meltdown he
had.  In 2008, Willis made 7 starts
for Detroit, pitching just 24 innings, he also had a 9.38 ERA, due to his walk
rate going off the charts, from 3.8 to 13.1.  Willis was eventuallly demoted to Class A Lakeland, and
placed on the DL with  an anxiety
disorder.  In 2009, Willis halved
his 2008 BB rate, but it’s clear, he can no longer pitch.  Unfortunatley for Detroit, they’re
stuck with a contract that will pay him $10 million this year, and $12 million
in 2010.


First off for the Marlins, its important to remember that
this was another salary dump, that said, one to the prospects.  Andrew Miller has struggled in the
majors as a starter, when he was acquired, he was a 22-year-old phenom, who had
recorded a sub-3.00 ERA combined at Classes A+, AA, and AAA.  He performed well at AA for the Fish in
’08, but fared poorly in ’09, falling all the way to Rookie ball, then settling
in as a  24-year-old at Double-A,
not good.  Dallas Trahern was in
the same boat as Miller, just a year younger, but because of his low strikeout
rate, and a rising walk rate, he hasn’t played in the majors, and seems to be
walking backwards.  Eulogio de la
Cruz is currently playing for the San Diego Padres, he had a solid fourth
starter year at Triple-A for the Marlins, and was traded to San Diego for a
PTBNL.  Burke Badenhop has been
used as the Marlins long relief man this year, he’s been good enough, but it
seems to be his ceiling.  Cameron
Maybin, the main prospect in the trade is putting up another good season in
Triple-AAA, however, his homerun power, and speed on the basepaths seem to have
dissapeared, and to compound matters, hasn’t hit in the majors.  Mike Rabelo, is a catcher. He can field
well, but can’t hit a lick.


It’s hard to determine a winner for this trade, despite
their shortcomings, the prospects he Marlins received could still figure it
out.  Florida wouldn’t have been
able to extend Cabrera or Willis, or re-sign them when they hit free agency.  Detroit has received great production
from Miggy, but are stuck with the D-Train and his contract.

The Mark Teixeira Trade Revisited

On July 30, 2007, the Texas Rangers traded star 1B Mark Teixeira, who had just turned down a 8-year $140 million contract extension, and LHP Ron Mahay to the Atlanta Braves, they received five players, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Elvis Andrus, LHP Beau Jones, LHP Matt Harrison, and RHP Neftali Feliz.  The Braves flipped Teixeira a year later for RHP Stephen Marek, and 1B Casey Kotchman.

Atlanta gave up a lot, they were trading for 1 1/2 years of one of the top sluggers in the game, but was it too much?
In a season’s worth of at-bats for the Braves, Teixeira carried to team, hitting, .295, with 37 HR, 134 RBI, and 101 R.  No doubt star numbers.
Ron Mahay put up his usual strong middle relief numbers in his half season with the Braves.
The Teixeira flip has turned out to be a disaster, not only did Atlanta miss out on compensation draft picks, Kotchman, the main player in the deal has been horrible, .258 AVG, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 37 R.  This in 441 PA.  Marek, touted in a relief role, has a 7.5 BB/9 rate, and a 6.9 SO/9 rate.  You do the math.  The Tex flip was a complete disaster.
The Rangers took it to the bank.
Saltalamacchia, while not having lived up to his offensive potential, has provided solid defense, and works very well with the pitching staff.
Andrus, making his major league debut this year, has been very good defensively this year, with plus speed on the basepaths offensively.  He could use a little more work on his plate discipline, though.
Harrison has had an up-and-down season in Texas’ starting rotation.  This has been brought on by some bad luck, and that he doesn’t strike out many.  He should stay in the Rangers’ rotation for a long time.
Feliz is the best player in this trade by far.  Dominating in AAA, striking out many, walking few, rarely allowing a longball, Feliz will dominate: 2010.
Jones has been the only huge flop for the Rangers.  He’s young, but toiling at Class-A+, walking too many batters, and getting shelled in a relief role.
The Mark Teixeira trade can go down as one of the worst in Braves history.  They emptied the farm system, for a great player, who then failed to take them to their goal, the playoffs.  The Rangers took it to the bank, and are on the edge of a star-filled future.

The Johan Santana Trade Revisited

On January 29, 2008, the Twins traded LHP Johan Santana to the New York Mets  receiving in return  CF Carlos Gomez, RHP Phillip Humber, RHP Deolis Guerra, and RHP Kevin Mulvey.  I am going to try to analyze this trade without using hindsight, though it probably won’t work.

Johan Santana, was acknowledged as one of, if not the best, pitcher’s in baseball when the Twins opted to trade him, the Twins selected the Mets’ offer of top prospect Carlos Gomez, and three pitcher’s, over offers by the Red Sox, and the Yankees.
In the 2008 season Santana put up ace numbers: 16-7, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 234 1/3 IP.  He has put up similar numbers in 2009.
The prospects Minnesota acquired haven’t fared anywhere near that well.  Carlos Gomez looked like baseball’s next young star at the beginning of the ’08 season, but after a torrid start, including hitting for the cycle, it all went downhill, as he finished with a .258/.296/.360 batting line.
 Former first round draft choice Humber gave up 6 runs in 11 2/3 IP in 2008, and was DFA’d by the Twins in April of ’09.  He was demoted to Triple-A, where he is struggling as a starter.
Deolis Guerra has bad control problems, and has failed to impress, he is in his third season in Class A Advanced.
Mulvey, currently a 24-year old pitching at Triple-A, has some minor control issues to work out, he projects as a number 4 starter.
All in all, the Mets are clear winners in this trade, not because of Santana, but because they gave up a minimal amount of talent.  While Santana’s contract would have been up after the ’08 season if he hadn’t been traded, Minnesota certainly could have used him in ’08, and used the draft pick’s he would have netted.  Fire Bill Smith!!!
This Day In Baseball History

1916-At Braves Field, right-hander Tom Hughes no-hits the Pirates, 2-0. ‘Salida Tom’ will finish the season with 16-3 record, the best win-loss percentage in the National League, for the third-place Boston club.

1933-The previous season’s National League batting champ, Lefty O’Doul, and pitcher Watty Clark, a 20-game winner the previous season, are traded by the Dodgers to the Giants for first baseman Sam Leslie.

1957-In a three and two-third innings relief appearance, Dixie Howell hits two home runs helping the White Sox beat the Senators, 8-6.

1964-In a 7-1 victory over the Astros, Cardinal third baseman Ken Boyer hits for the cycle. In the same game, Lou Brock, recently obtained from the Cubs for Ernie Broglio, makes his debut in a St. Louis uniform with two hits, including a triple, and the fleet outfielder also steals a base.

1969-In an effort to return major league baseball to Milwaukee, the Chicago White Sox play a home game at County Stadium where only 13,133 fans show up to see the ‘home’ team beat the Pilots, 8-3. Ironically, the visitors will leave Seattle next season to move to the ‘Cream City’ with the one-year old American League franchise becoming known as the Brewers.

1969-In the bottom of the first inning at Metropolitan Stadium, Tony Oliva and Rod Carew complete a double steal swiping second and third base repectively. On the next pitch thrown by Angels’ starter Tom Murphy , the pair repeat the feat, as Carew steals home for the sixth time this season tying the American League record.

1978-Reds’ right-hander Tom Seaver no-hits the Cardinals, 4-0. It is Tom Terrific’s first no-hitter after coming close three times his 12-year career.

1989-Reds’ right-hander Tom Seaver no-hits the Cardinals, 4-0. It is Tom Terrific’s first no-hitter after coming close three times his 12-year career.

1991-Against the Reds, Phillies’ right-hander Andy Ashby strikes out the side on only nine pitches to become the 12th pitcher in National League history to use the minimum amount of pitches needed to record three strikeouts in one inning. The Philadelphia rookie becomes first in franchise history to accomplished the feat.

1997-At Yankee Stadium, the Mets beat their cross-town rivals, 6-0, in the first-ever regular season game between the two teams. Dave Mlicki throws a complete game shut out blanking the Bronx Bombers on nine hits.

2001-John Olerud becomes the 21st player to hit for the cycle more than once his career. Among all of the players who have accomplished hitting a single, double, triple and home run in the same game, the Mariners’ first baseman has the fewest career triples with just 12 in his 13-year major league stint

2006-In the sixth inning of 9-8 to Linx in Ottawa, Brandon Watson of the Columbus Clippers breaks the 95-year old International League record by extending his hitting streak to 43 consecutive games. The Nationals farmhand, who is batting .360 during this stretch, eclipses the mark set by Jack Lelivelt of the Rochester Hustlers by set in 1912.

The Dan Haren Trade Revisited

Before I get to the main subject of today’s post,  a few quick notes…

  • Congratulations To Red Sox Pitcher Jon Lester For Taking A Perfect Game Into The 7th

Jon Lester is a success story to many.  A miraculous recovery from cancer, pitching again, winning the last game of the 2007 World Series, and finally pitching a no-hitter in 2008.  Lester’s story runs almost parallel with another player’s: Dave Dravecky.  At the beginning off the 1988 season, Dravecky had a cancerous desmoid tumor removed from his pitching arm, along with half of the deltoid muscle, and freezing the humerus bone.  On August 10, 1989, Dravecky made a remarkable return to the majors, pitching 8 innings, and giving up three runs.  However tragedy struck in his next start, Dravecky’s humerus bone snapped while he was delivering a pitch, ending his career.  Let’s hope that Lester’s career won’t mirror Dravecky’s that closely!

  • Chad Tracy, Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Eric Byrnes, You Should Be Ashamed

Diamondbacks pitcher Max Scherzer has a .667 OPS, horrible, right?  What else would you expect from a pitcher?  Four D-back starters, 1B Chad Tracy, SS Stephen Drew, CF Chris Young, and RF Eric Byrnes, have lower OPS’s than Scherzer!  The D-backs offense should be ashamed.

Now the main topic, the Dan Haren trade Revisited
On December 15, 2007, the Oakland A’s traded RHP Dan Haren to the D-backs for six players, LHP’s Dana Eveland, Brett Anderson, and Greg Smith, OF’s Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham, and 1B Chris Carter.  
After the 2008 season, in which they failed to impress, Smith, and Gonzalez were used as part of a package for Matt Holliday.  They will be left out of the analysis
How has Haren done for the D-backs?  Through 44 starts, Haren has gone 20-12 with a 3.09 ERA, and 284 strikeouts, including a career high of 206 in 2008, and a 1.06 WHIP.  Ace numbers.
But the A’s certainly received an ace’s haul for Haren.
LHP Eveland was one of the A’s starters in 2008, and at the beginning of 2009, he was solid in ’08, but with the A’s glut of young pitchers, I don’t see Eveland in the team’s longterm plans.
LHP Anderson, just 21 years old, has had a rocky start to his major league career, his minor league numbers are fantastic however, and he should be dominating in 2010.
Cunningham will take over in LF for 2010, he projects as power-speed combo, perhaps 15 HR’s, and 20 steals, with a high .OBP.
Chris Carter will defensively end up a 1B, or a DH.  But his hitting ability cannot be questioned, Carter is a slugger who gets on base a ton.  He projects as a 25-30 homerun bat in the majors.
All in all, Haren could have been a young veteran anchor in an even younger rotation, but with the potential of Anderson, Cunningham, and Carter, the A’s made the right move.  The D-backs paid a king’ s ransom to get a second ace, Haren’s been great, but the D-backs offense hasn’t put them in the playoffs yet.
This Day In Baseball History

1938-In a game against the Red Sox, Indians’ pitcher Johnny Allen storms off the mound and doesn’t return when he is ordered by ump Bill McGowan to cut off his distracting dangling sweatshirt sleeve. The shirt ends up in the Hall of Fame but the Lenoir, North Carolina native doesn’t.

1982-Dodger first baseman Steve Garvey becomes only the fifth player in major league history to play in 1,000 consecutive games.

1983-Steve ‘Lefty’ Carlton of the Phillies strikes out Cardinals’ outfielder Lonnie Smith for his 3,522nd career strikeout to pass Nolan Ryan as the all-time strikeout leader.

1989-For the first time in major league history, the same game is played partly outdoors and partly indoors as the Blue Jays beat the Brewers, 4-2 in a contest which features the closing of the SkyDome’s retractable roof in the fifth inning due to inclement weather.

1998-Dave Burba becomes the first Cleveland pitcher to homer in 26 years in a 6-1 victory over the Reds at Cinergy Field. Ironically, the right-hander was scheduled to be the Opening Day pitcher for Cincinnati but was traded to Cleveland the day before for Sean Casey.

2006-With the Yankees 10-3 victory over the White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field, Joe Torre wins his 2,000th game as a manager. The former Brav
es (257), Mets (286) and Cardinals (351) skipper becomes the first person in big league history to have to reached the milestone and also have at least 2,000 hits as a player.

2007-With two outs in the bottomof the ninth inning at Network Associates Coliseum, Shannon Stewart lines a single to right field to break up Curt Schilling’s no-hitter. Thanks to a first inning home run by David Ortiz, the Red Sox beat the A’s,1-0.